Momentum, part 1

The month long previews of #ausvsa and #indveng continue…


For a bit there, this series had some rather decent momentum, but it’s been a busy and hectic few days, unfortunately.

And speaking of momentum: just how important is that first match going to be in Ahmedabad? In Brisbane?

This post will look at the former, tomorrow’s post will look at the latter:

India have hosted England for 12 test series. This count does not factor in the “one-off” Jubilee test in 1980.

Here’s how everything played out:

Series Start Date Winner of first Match Winner of Series
1933 England England
1951 Draw Draw
1961 Draw India
1964 Draw Draw
1972 England India
1976 England England
1981 India India
1984 India England
1993 India India
2001 India India
2006 Draw Draw
2008 India India

England have won three of the 12 series they have played on Indian soil. Two of those series saw them win the first match, while the third, in Mumbai in 1984, they lost.

India have won six of the 12 series against England. Four of those series saw them win the first match, drawing one and losing the other.

Therefore, of the nine series that finished with a result, the eventual winner won the first match six times, or 67%. Nearly seven in 10.

Meanwhile all three series that ended drawn opened with a drawn match.

What does this all tell us?

That if we get a winner in Ahmedabad, we will likely see a result in the series.

If we get a draw, we are more than likely to have the series end drawn.

Unfortunately due to the ground’s recent reputation, the latter is far more possible than the former.

New prediction: series ends in a draw.


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